The U.S. economy is not expected to have added much to payrolls in October, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. They forecast a gain of 59,000 nonfarm jobs, up slightly from 29,000 in September. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.2%.
Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at jobs site ZipRecruiter, said a smaller labor force means the economy needs fewer new jobs to keep unemployment steady. "An aging workforce is pushing a lot of people into retirement," she said. She also cited decades of low birth rates and a significant drop in immigration as factors shrinking the pool of available workers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.
According to the source, payroll growth from January 2025 through September 2026 averaged 35,000 a month. The labor force has contracted by 434,000 over that period, and the labor force participation rate fell 0.8 percentage point to 61.8%.
Other indicators look firmer, the report says. Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 last week, the lowest since July. Job openings rose by 333,000 in September, and the number of workers quitting their jobs reached 3.36 million, the highest in a year and a half.
Long-term unemployment is a concern. The number of workers jobless for more than 25 weeks is up 495,000 since January 2025, and the average duration of unemployment is 24.8 weeks, according to BLS data through September.
Bachaud described the situation as difficult for people who are out of work. "There's not a lot of movement happening," she said, adding that low turnover makes it hard for jobseekers to get back in.