US job growth in October is expected to pick up, according to a Reuters survey of economists, with wage gains moderating. Economists polled by Reuters forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by about 65,000 jobs last month, after a 29,000 gain in September. Estimates ranged from 35,000 to 125,000 jobs.
The Labor Department's employment report is due Friday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2%, though some see a high probability it slipped to 4.1%.
Wages are forecast to rise 2.9% over the 12 months through October. That would be the first year-on-year increase below 3% since May 2021, down from 3.0% in September.
James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said weak wage growth should help dampen medium-term price pressures. "We have got a jobs market which isn't generating wage growth in any meaningful way," he said.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, described the economy as shifting toward a "job-light expansion." He said job security remains elevated for current workers, while opportunities for job seekers and job switchers have become more limited.
Economists say the economy needs to add at least 40,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Employment gains have averaged 68,000 jobs per month this year. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter.
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range last week. Economists still expect the Fed to raise rates in December. Consumer inflation data for October is due next Tuesday.