The average jobless American's stretch without work surpassed 27 weeks in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report released Friday. The BLS reported that about 2 million people have been unemployed for at least 27 weeks. That group, which the agency calls the "long-term unemployed," made up 27.6% of all jobless workers in October, the highest share since late 2021.
Indeed senior economist Cory Stahle said the series can be noisy from month to month. "But if you look over a longer time horizon, there is no mistake in the trend," he said.
The CNBC report links the trend to a "low-hire, low-fire" market, in which companies are reluctant to lay off workers but are not adding many. It cites research showing that long-term unemployment is associated with depleted savings, lower future earnings and declining mental health. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond wrote earlier this year that extended unemployment may itself reduce the chance of finding a job, perhaps because skills depreciate, networks thin or employers read long gaps as a negative signal.
Workers generally lose most government unemployment benefits after 26 weeks, according to the report. Stahle said the average unemployed person now takes longer to find a job than those benefits last. The report says a rising share of long-term unemployed workers may partly explain why initial and continuing jobless claims have stayed low.
The same jobs data showed other strength. Nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs in October, above economists' forecasts, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. A separate BLS report released Tuesday showed job openings in September well above expectations, and the number of workers quitting jobs rose to levels not seen since March 2025. Layoffs and discharges fell to their lowest volume in more than a year.
The report also notes recent high-profile cuts. CNBC reported that Disney plans to cut thousands of jobs, the latest of several waves at the company this year. American Express said last month that it was reducing headcount by 5% as it reorients around artificial intelligence.
Elizabeth Renter, lead economist at Life360, said the gap between the national numbers and personal experience can be jarring. "When your LinkedIn is filled with layoffs and your social circle features a few folks who have been job seeking for several months, positive narratives about the labor market can seem jarring," she said.