The New York Federal Reserve found that tariffs imposed during President Donald Trump's second term drove up prices on 67 categories of consumer goods by 2.9 percentage points as of February, according to research released by the central bank's New York arm.
Without the tariffs, prices for the products studied would have declined by nearly 1 percent, the team concluded. The finding offers direct evidence of how Trump's levies, a centerpiece of his recent campaign and administration, have affected household spending.
Researchers Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein calculated that for each percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices rose roughly 0.25 percent about a year later. Peak price growth from tariff-related increases occurred at the start of 2026, though elevated prices are expected to persist into 2027, the report stated.
The researchers did not name which 67 product categories they evaluated.
About two-thirds of the tariff-driven price increase came directly from the levies themselves. The remaining third resulted from secondary effects, such as when U.S. manufacturers that rely on imported parts and materials passed costs to consumers. "Tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumer prices than the direct effect alone would suggest," the authors wrote.
Trump had argued that companies could absorb tariff costs rather than raising prices for shoppers. The New York Fed team found that roughly 26 percent of tariff increases from last year ended up in higher consumer prices, suggesting substantial absorption by businesses.
The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs in February, triggering billions in refunds to retailers. The White House has signaled plans to reimpose levies through alternative measures. Current tariffs on many imported goods average around 10 percent, substantially lower than earlier rounds.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the report.