Trump rejected a potential diplomatic agreement with Iran on Wednesday, stating he does not want a deal even as Iran reportedly offers concessions. The announcement came during a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas, and followed reports that the U.S. military is preparing for possible large-scale strikes against Iranian targets.
Trump said Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, has been working on negotiations and "doing very well," but that Trump himself views a deal as undesirable. Trump's national security team has discussed resuming major military operations in coming weeks, according to NBC News, citing a U.S. official and another person with knowledge of the discussions.
Axios reported that possible military action could include "massive bombing" of Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear targets. The outlet added that military escalation could influence the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's approval ratings have fallen to record lows amid public concern over high living costs, driven partly by elevated gasoline and diesel prices.
Earlier this week, Trump claimed the primary obstacle to negotiations was uncertainty about who holds power in Iran. Iranian officials rejected that characterization. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeli Baghaei countered that "the problem is actually the opposite," pointing to "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from U.S. officials."
Energy markets showed some resilience. Crude oil prices remain elevated despite recovery in Middle East exports. Combined crude volumes exiting the Gulf, excluding Iran, plus volumes from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, reached approximately 18.5 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data. That matches pre-conflict levels.
Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, said normalisation of energy flows no longer depends on a diplomatic deal. He forecast "slower, uneven normalisation" if conflict continues, with traffic recovering through operational adjustment rather than waiting for a political settlement.
