Gas, diesel and jet fuel prices have risen sharply, despite President Donald Trump's September 2024 promise to cut gasoline below $2 a gallon within his first year in office. The report says Trump told the New York Economic Club that his plan would "cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office."
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said gas and diesel prices are forecast to be the highest ever on an election day. "Prices have never been this high this late in the year," De Haan said.
The national average gas price was $4.20 a gallon on Friday, nearly 40% above the same period last year. Diesel rose about 70% over the past year, to $6.32 a gallon, according to the report. AAA data cited in the report put retail gas at $3.80 during the 2022 midterm elections.
The report links the increase to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. It says Iran retaliated with strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which severely reduced oil flows through the route. The report also cites Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries as further pressure on supply.
De Haan said, "Trump got in his own way." He said GasBuddy had predicted in December that 2026 would be the cheapest year for gas since 2020.
Trump told a Michigan rally that rising fuel prices are a "small price to pay" to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said gas prices would "drop drastically" once the conflict ends. The White House also said gas prices, adjusted for inflation, have been higher around previous election days.
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC that diesel is "the key crunch point" for economic growth. He spoke after the company reported large profits. The report says airlines have raised fares to offset jet fuel costs.
The report says Trump considered a diesel export ban but decided against it, citing the risk of higher gasoline prices. He instead issued an executive order allowing truckers to use tax-exempt, off-road diesel on U.S. highways and announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers. It also says he struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to export about 6 million barrels of diesel through November. Zelenskyy and some Republican senators criticized the agreement. Energy analysts quoted in the report said the volumes are small relative to global demand and will not have a meaningful effect on prices.
Crude prices have also risen in October, with Brent up more than 13% and West Texas Intermediate up 15%, the report says. De Haan said escalation could push prices higher before Thanksgiving.